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Today’s Maze

EU finance ministers want online stores to collect value-added tax at checkout on more imports, then report it in one EU country. For overseas retailers, the gain would be a more consistent checkout across their catalogue. Where they hold stock still matters, because only eligible customs warehouses would qualify. We also look at what retailers can check once their business profile appears in ChatGPT.

News

  • 1️⃣ EU finance ministers back simpler VAT collection on more imported orders

  • 2️⃣ OpenAI lets eligible retailers claim a business profile in ChatGPT

  • 3️⃣ South Korea orders delivery apps to drop price-matching demands on restaurants

Insights

  • 4️⃣ Early ChatGPT ad visits produced less revenue than direct visits

  • 5️⃣ European spending power varies sharply between countries and within them

  • 6️⃣ Costco and Amazon plus Whole Foods gain US packaged-goods share

LET’S ENTER THE MAZE!

1️⃣ News

EU backs one VAT route for bigger online imports

The Maze: EU finance ministers backed a plan to let online stores collect VAT at checkout and report it in one EU country on more orders shipped into the bloc. VAT is a tax shoppers already pay on commercial imports of all values. The proposal changes how that tax gets collected.

European Commission chart of 2025 VAT declared by scheme: €27.9 billion in the Union scheme, €3.2 billion in the non-Union scheme and €7.7 billion in the import scheme.

Source: European Commission (DG TAXUD). The import scheme (IOSS) accounted for €7.7 billion in VAT declared in 2025. Figure 1 cropped from the report. CC BY 4.0.

  • 🧾 One route above €150. Today the import scheme covers eligible shipments worth €150 or less. The Council’s draft would remove that ceiling, keep products such as alcohol outside the scheme and make marketplaces collect VAT on covered orders across the old threshold.

  • 📦 More stock would qualify. Sales from designated EU customs warehouses would also be eligible. Parliament still has to be consulted before the Council formally adopts the measure. The proposed start is July 2028.

Our take: The gain for overseas sellers is a more consistent checkout across their catalogue. The warehouse decision still depends on where they can hold stock.

  • 📊 A filing route with scale. Import VAT declared through the scheme rose from €6.3 billion in 2024 to €7.7 billion in 2025. The expansion would build on a system sellers already use at scale.

  • 🏬 A warehouse with strings attached. The Customs Code allows an importer using the VAT scheme or its indirect customs representative to run the site. Either operator needs warehouse authorisation and the EU’s Trust and Check status. Compare bulk storage at an eligible site with shipping each order directly.

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2️⃣ News

OpenAI lets merchants claim a ChatGPT profile

The Maze: OpenAI’s Business Hub beta lets eligible retailers in markets where ChatGPT is available claim a business profile and verify the business. They can then update store details and send ChatGPT a list of products with prices and stock.

An illustrative ChatGPT answer next to the verified Colorful Clatter profile with Start chat and View website buttons.

Source: OpenAI. OpenAI’s demo shows a toy store’s verified profile beside a ChatGPT answer, with options to start a chat or visit the store’s site.

  • 🛍️ Shopify already sends eligible products. Merchants can connect their store to simplify verification. The new step is claiming the profile that shoppers can open from a ChatGPT answer.

  • 💬 The branded chat starts in the US. Eligible US online stores and service businesses can publish a Business Agent. Shoppers choose whether to start this separate, labeled AI chat with the business.

  • 📊 The dashboard combines activity across users. Merchants can see mentions and website clicks once activity clears privacy thresholds. Individual conversations stay with OpenAI.

Our take: The profile gives stores a way to correct the facts shoppers see. Whether the chat earns time on the ecommerce team’s calendar depends on what happens next.

  • 🔍 Check what counts. OpenAI told Digiday that an online store’s mention requires a reference to its site. Clicks measure taps on supported links. Use store analytics to see which visits and orders follow.

  • 🧾 Test the handoff. The Business Agent sends shoppers to the merchant’s site to buy. Try a question about fit or compatibility and check whether the linked page confirms the answer.

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3️⃣ News

South Korea targets delivery-app price rules

The Maze: On November 9, South Korea’s competition regulator announced corrective orders and about ₩631.9 billion in provisional fines for the operators of Baemin and Coupang Eats. The two apps handled nearly 93% of South Korean food-delivery app order value in 2025.

Korean regulator table of average delivery times on Baemin. Restaurant-arranged delivery took 31.5 minutes versus 44.7 displayed. Baemin economy delivery took 32.9 minutes versus 31.7 displayed. Baemin single-order delivery took 27.4 minutes versus 25.7 displayed.

Source: Korea Fair Trade Commission. From April 2023 through July 2025, Baemin showed 44.7 minutes for restaurant-arranged delivery versus 31.7 for its economy service. Actual averages were 31.5 and 32.9 minutes. Page 28, modified by cropping. KOGL Type 1.

  • 🎟️ Member perks came with strings. The regulator says Coupang Eats used its WOW store status to make restaurants match or beat terms on rival apps. Baemin imposed similar conditions on restaurants using its delivery service. Customers got member delivery discounts only at qualifying stores.

  • 🏷️ Cheaper rivals had less room. Matching menu prices, discounts and order minimums made it harder to pass on a smaller app’s lower fees. The orders prohibit those demands and require the apps to notify merchants.

Our take: When a marketplace also delivers the order, restaurants need to know the arrival time buyers see and the fee the app will charge.

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4️⃣ Insight

Purchase odds, order value and revenue per visit by channel.
Bounce odds, pages per visit and time per visit by channel.

The Maze: From June 2025 through August 2026, researchers compared early ChatGPT ad visits with direct visits to the same sites. Direct visitors typed the shop’s web address themselves. Odds compare visits with an outcome to visits without it.

Our take: Use the early results to price a small test. Scale only if it adds sales at a cost you can afford.

  • 💵 Price the click. In a separate US comparison, a ChatGPT ad visit brought in $0.89 versus $2.45 for paid Google Search. The authors estimated about $0.26 per ChatGPT click to match paid search revenue per ad dollar. Use your own margins to set the bid ceiling.

  • 🧪 Measure extra orders. The study credits the final click, so a ChatGPT ad can go uncredited when a shopper discovers a store in the ad and later buys through search. Compare total orders with a similar group held out of the campaign to estimate what the ads added.

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5️⃣ Insight

Estimated 2026 disposable income per person for the ten highest-ranked European countries, the Europe average of €21.2k, and last-ranked Ukraine.

The Maze: NielsenIQ estimates that across 42 European countries, residents have €21,153 each on average in annual disposable income in 2026, up 4.4% from its revised 2025 estimate before adjusting for inflation. That income is what residents have after taxes and charitable contributions, including state benefits. It covers rent and energy as well as shopping.

Our take: Use regional income to decide where to test a different range, then check demand before stocking it.

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6️⃣ Insight

Walmart held 20.8% of U.S. packaged-goods spending in the years ended September 2024 and 2026. Costco rose from 7.5% to 8.2%, Amazon plus Whole Foods from 6.7% to 8.1%, and Kroger fell from 7.1% to 6.7%.

The Maze: Costco and Amazon plus Whole Foods took a larger share of US spending on packaged goods in the 12 months to September 2026 than in the equivalent 2024 window. Numerator tracks dollars spent in stores and online on goods such as groceries, toiletries and pet food.

  • 📈 The gains came from two entries. Costco rose from 7.5% to 8.2%. Amazon and its supermarket chain Whole Foods together went from 6.7% to 8.1%. That’s a combined gain of 2.1 percentage points.

  • 🏪 The ranking shifted. Kroger dropped to fourth as its share fell from 7.1% to 6.7%. Amazon plus Whole Foods was already ahead in the September 2025 window.

Our take: Use the national shift to choose where to look for growth. Then check where shoppers buy your product category.

  • 🧺 Start with your category. Costco and Amazon plus Whole Foods both gained 0.7 points in grocery. Their gains across all packaged goods differed. A brand should check the retailer’s share of its own category before budgeting for a new listing.

  • ⚖️ Keep reach in the plan. Walmart still accounted for 20.8% of packaged-goods spending. A supplier can test a listing with a growing retailer while protecting stock at the accounts its customers already use.

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THAT’S IT FOR TODAY!

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See you next time in the maze!

MarketMaze team

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