The Maze: Costco and Amazon plus Whole Foods together took 16.3% of tracked US spending on packaged goods in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 14.2% in the equivalent 2024 window. Numerator counts dollars spent in stores and online on products such as groceries, toiletries and pet food. For brands deciding where to expand, the shift is a reason to look at who sells their category and how much room there is to grow with each retailer.
The details
📈 Amazon plus Whole Foods gained twice as much share as Costco. Costco rose from 7.5% to 8.2%, and Amazon plus Whole Foods moved from 6.7% to 8.1%. Those moves add up to 2.1 percentage points. The larger gain came from an entry that combines Amazon with its supermarket chain, Whole Foods. Numerator’s figures give one total for that pair across stores and online.
🏪 Kroger slipped behind Amazon plus Whole Foods. Kroger’s share fell from 7.1% to 6.7% over the two years. It was already behind the combined Amazon entry in the 12 months to September 2025, when the two stood at 6.8% and 7.4%, respectively. Walmart held first place through all three windows. These are shares of spending, so a smaller share can still come with higher sales if the overall market grows.
🛒 Grocery chains moved in different directions. Albertsons and Ahold Delhaize each lost 0.3 points. Publix stayed at 3.3%. Aldi and Trader Joe’s each gained 0.2 points, reaching 2.3% and 1.3%, respectively. A brand reviewing its accounts needs the retailer-level view. A single forecast for grocery chains could hide opportunities at individual retailers.
Our take
Use changes in national share to decide where to investigate. A distribution plan needs two further answers. How much of your specific category does each retailer reach, and what would another listing earn after the cost of serving it?
🧺 Size the opportunity within the category. In Numerator’s narrower grocery ranking, Costco and Amazon plus Whole Foods each gained 0.7 points. Their gains diverge across the broader basket. A pet-food supplier should check pet-food spending by retailer before budgeting for a listing. A grocery supplier needs the same check for its own products.
📦 Work out what the second listing adds. Costco and Amazon plus Whole Foods finished at 8.2% and 8.1% of US packaged-goods spending. Those similar shares tell a supplier little about whether it would reach the same shoppers through both accounts. Test whether a listing brings in additional purchases or moves orders from an existing account. Compare the profit it adds after retailer fees, promotions and fulfillment.
⚖️ Separate current reach from the next growth bet. Walmart’s 20.8% share still exceeds the other two retailers’ combined 16.3%. A brand with substantial sales at Walmart can keep enough stock there to protect existing sales while reserving a smaller budget to test a new retailer. The balance depends on where its own customers buy.
