The Maze: U.S. shoppers expect to use 28% of their holiday budgets by the end of October, the highest share in six years. Deloitte’s survey points to an earlier contest for purchases. Retailers still face a long selling season: buying a gift early does not mean the shopper has finished.
The Details:
Earlier spending is a plan, not a receipt. Deloitte, the professional services firm, surveyed 4,000 U.S. consumers online between August 26 and September 10. Their expected October budget use rose from 24% in 2025 to 28% this year. That is a four-percentage-point increase. It describes the share of planned holiday spending, rather than the share of people who have completed their shopping. Another 22% said they would start earlier than last year. These answers were collected before October’s offers and purchases; they cannot establish what retailers have actually sold.
Promotions give shoppers more occasions to buy. The survey found that 42% expected to shop October sales events, compared with 24% in 2023. That is an 18-percentage-point rise over three years, measured among 3,700 respondents to the event question. Deloitte’s retail strategist Brian McCarthy explains that shoppers research prices and prepare for known sales. They also compare shipping speed and whether they can use reward points. The survey calls 38% of respondents “holiday value seekers”: people using at least five money-saving behaviours. They plan to spend 12% more than other shoppers. Chasing value can accompany a bigger budget; it does not necessarily mean buying less.
The product changes the timing. In his original interview, McCarthy distinguishes a large purchase such as a television from clothing or toys. Someone may buy their one television when an attractive October offer appears, while choosing other gifts later. That is his retail interpretation, rather than a measured rule for every category. Deloitte also found that 77% planned shopping activity in late November and 78% in early December. Those periods can include the same people. They measure shoppers active, rather than the portion of their budgets spent.
MarketMaze Take: The commercial problem is a longer contest for a limited budget. An early order can secure a purchase that a rival would otherwise win later. It does not, by itself, show that the shopper’s total seasonal spending has grown. The distinction matters when judging whether an early promotion has worked.
Availability needs a category calendar. The television example supports having important products ready when shoppers compare early offers. The continuing November and December activity argues for keeping enough stock for later choices, too. Moving the entire assortment into October would turn a category-specific observation into a much broader inventory bet than this evidence supports.
The transferable lesson is about timing. Retailers outside the United States can separate an earlier purchase from an additional purchase when assessing their own promotions. These U.S. survey percentages cannot forecast another country’s season. Even here, intentions can change: actual orders, remaining stock and profit after discounts must establish whether earlier demand improved the result.
Sources: Modern Retail, Deloitte report, Deloitte, Deloitte press release
