Global Fashion Slowdown 📉

The Maze: The global fashion engine is cooling as macro uncertainty pushes consumers toward caution and brands toward pricing power. Forecasts reveal shrinking volume, uneven price moves and widening gaps between regions and categories. Across markets, leaders brace for another slow year shaped by tariffs, inflation pressure and shifting demand.

→ Europe, US and China all slide toward low single digit fashion growth by 26E, with China swinging from 12 percent luxury growth in 23 to negative in 24 before stabilising.
→ Global executives expect higher prices and softer volumes in 26 as 53 percent plan price hikes above 1 percent and only 36 percent expect stronger unit growth.
→ Tariffs hit sourcing markets hard with China and Vietnam responsible for 14 billion dollars of the 27 billion dollar duty impact and smaller hubs adding another 13 billion dollars.
→ Brands shift production and raise prices to absorb tariff costs as 55 percent opt for price increases and more than one third move sourcing to lower duty markets.
→ Jewellery overtakes all categories with 4.1 percent volume growth through 28E while clothing and footwear stay near 1 percent and other accessories contract on price.
→ Asia Pacific grows its jewellery share from 63 percent to 65 percent by 28E as China and India dominate global demand while Europe and North America stagnate.

Why it matters: The industry is entering a long cycle where pricing, efficiency and sourcing strategy beat top line expansion. Brands that adjust supply chains, protect margins and align with shifting regional demand will outperform. Those slow to pivot will get squeezed by costs they cannot pass on and consumers they cannot win back.

Fashion and luxury growth slows across Europe, US and China as macro pressure hits demand. China flips from double digit luxury gains to a steep drop as Europe and US sink into low single digits, exposing how fragile demand has become.

→ Europe fashion drops from +13% in 22 to about +2% in 26E while luxury falls from +12% to near +3%.
→ US fashion slides from +2% in 22 to around +1% in 26E while luxury falls from +10% in 22 to flat by 25E.
→ China shows the sharpest swings from minus 3% in 22 to +2% in 24 then flat, while luxury falls to minus 8% in 24 before stabilising.

Brands face a world where growth is earned, not given. The next winners will create demand, not wait for it.

Price becomes the main lever as leaders expect weaker volumes but rising input costs. Brands plan selective hikes while bracing for softer unit demand.

→ In 26, only 36% expect volume gains above +1% while 31% of 25 execs saw drops of 5% or more.
→ 53% plan price increases of 1 to 5% and 37% plan hikes above 5%.
→ Only 14 to 18% expect no change, signalling almost no stability in demand or pricing.

Brands must sharpen pricing and product mix as units fall and costs rise. Margin wins now depend on precision.

The tariff wave reshapes sourcing as China and Vietnam take the biggest duty increases. The hit spreads across Asia and smaller hubs as global supply chains get rewired.

→ China takes a 9B impact, Vietnam 5B and India almost 3B.
→ Bangladesh and Indonesia add 1.5B each and Cambodia adds 1.3B to the burden.
→ Other regions add 4.3B while Mexico stays at 0.

A 27B tariff hit forces sourcing rewrites at speed. Resilience becomes the new sourcing benchmark.

To absorb tariff pressure, brands use pricing, logistics and supplier resets. Efficiency and speed become mandatory to protect margins.

→ 55% raise prices to offset costs and 35% move sourcing to lower tariff markets.
→ 32% streamline logistics to cut freight and fulfilment spend and 29% renegotiate upstream sourcing.
→ Only 9% redesign products to shift tariff codes, showing limited room to manoeuvre.

Operational muscle wins in the tariff era. Slow movers lose.

Jewellery breaks away as the fastest growing category with strong volume gains and steady price moves. Emotional and financial value makes the category resilient.

→ Jewellery delivers +4.1% volume growth vs clothing at +1% and footwear at +1.2% through 28E.
→ Watches deliver +3.3% unit gains and handbags post +3.8% price growth.
→ Other accessories fall on price at minus 0.6% but still grow units +3.5%.

Jewellery’s mix of value and durability makes it a standout performer. Premium players gain even more.

APAC cements itself as the core of global jewellery demand. China and India anchor growth as Western markets flatline.

→ APAC rises from 63% share in 25E to 65% in 28E.
→ Middle East and Africa dip from 22% to 20% while Europe and North America hold at 10%.
→ Latin America stays at 3% with limited upside.

Jewellery’s future is written in Asia. Global brands must shift product, pricing and supply chains toward APAC’s demand engine.

Editable Slides & Sources:
🔒 Available for MarketMaze+ subscribers

Before you go we’d love to know what you thought of this maze to help us improve!

See you next time in the maze!
MarketMaze team