China’s Retail Reckoning 🌏

The Maze: Temu’s rise looked unstoppable until gravity showed up. Growth, traffic, and market penetration across five regions reveal a simple truth: price wins fast, but policy and behavior win slow. The data tracks how Chinese platforms scale globally, where they stall, and why the next phase will be harder than the first.

→ Temu leaps 4,727.6% in ’23 then falls to 34.8% in ’25 while Shein slides from 237.9% in ’20 to 6.3% in ’26, showing discount fueled growth always normalizes.
→ US visits to Temu, Shein, Aliexpress hit more than 450M in early ’25 before new tariffs cut volume sharply, revealing how policy moves shape shopper behavior overnight.
→ Combined global traffic for Temu, Shein, Aliexpress climbs from about 600M in ’22 to nearly 3B in Aug ’25, overtaking Amazon’s 2.8B for the first time.
→ Penetration is highest where purchasing power is low and mobile habits dominate, with Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines anchoring the fastest adoption curve.
→ GMV share hits up to 56% in Indonesia and 49% in the Philippines while US, UK, Japan remain above 90% local due to stronger incumbents and higher consumer expectations.

Why it matters: Chinese ecommerce is no longer a regional story but a global variable. From traffic shocks to GMV redistribution, the world’s retail map is being redrawn by price, logistics and regulation. The next winners will be those who blend global scale with local behavior, not the ones spending the most on subsidies.

Temu’s 4,727.6% surge in ’23 rewrote ecommerce physics, but by ’25 the model hits turbulence. Shein’s earlier arc shows the same pattern: fast growth, quick fatigue, then a long slide toward maturity.

→ Temu hits 4,727.6% in ’23 then drops to 285% in ’24 and 34.8% in ’25 as logistics strain, complaints and policy pressure curb expansion.
→ Shein softens from 237.9% in ’20 to 55% in ’23 and single digits by ’25 as fast fashion saturation slows demand.
→ By ’26 Temu stabilizes at 13.4% and Shein at 6.3%, two different strategies ending at almost the same growth floor.

The arc shows that subsidies buy attention, not loyalty. Once the discounts fade, platforms must compete on delivery, trust and habit, not price.

US shoppers jump between Temu, Shein and Aliexpress across ’24–’25 until the rulebook changes. Visits climb past 450M by Feb ’25, then drop sharply after the new tariff package lands.

→ Temu drives the surge, pushing total traffic from around 200M in early ’24 to above 330M on its own by early ’25.
→ On 2 April the new tariff program is announced, triggering a visible demand retreat before enforcement starts on 2 May.
→ By mid ’25 traffic settles closer to 300M, still high but far below the peak as shoppers recalibrate to longer delivery times and higher landed prices.

The swings show how fragile cross border demand is when politics steps into checkout.

By Aug ’25 Temu, Shein and Aliexpress together surpass Amazon’s global traffic for the first time. It’s the clearest sign yet that global ecommerce is no longer a one player market.

→ Combined visits rise from about 600M in Nov ’22 to nearly 3B in Aug ’25.
→ Temu fuels most of the jump, reaching roughly 2B monthly visits on its own.
→ Amazon sits at 2.8B in the same month, still massive but no longer the uncontested default.

Global ecommerce has split into two models: convenience driven and price driven. Both now scale at global speed.

Chinese platforms scale fast in emerging markets but hit headwinds elsewhere. Regulation tightens, incumbents fight back and shopper behavior varies more than price tags suggest.

→ The US closes its de minimis loophole for low value parcels in May ’25 after a surge of Chinese exports, while Europe considers similar restrictions and pushes harder on privacy and safety.
→ Amazon launches Haul to counter Temu and Shein, Shopee overtakes Lazada in Southeast Asia and Mercado Libre’s ecosystem in Latin America stays almost impossible to dislodge.
→ Shoppers in Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines buy impulsively on phones, but US, UK and Japan consumers begin with search and still value stores, limiting China’s ability to copy Southeast Asia’s playbook.

Chinese players now face a world where price alone can’t win. Their next wins will come from adapting to regulation, local habits and incumbents that refuse to stand still.

Chinese ecommerce isn’t drifting globally, it’s expanding with intent. The GMV footprint shows where price, logistics and ecosystems combine into durable advantages.

→ In Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines Chinese owned players like Lazada and TikTok Shop reach up to 50% of B2C ecommerce, blending low prices with dense cross border networks.
→ Latin America, Middle East and parts of Europe keep climbing as Temu, Shein and Aliexpress gain presence, even as Mercado Libre, Amazon and local champions defend their turf fiercely.
→ Expansion now stretches beyond marketplaces: in July JD.com buys into Germany’s Ceconomy and explores a move for Argos, signaling a shift toward retail ownership in key markets.

The GMV map shows the next phase of China’s push: global platforms mixing acquisitions, logistics and local retail to grow beyond price and reshape competition across continents.

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