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TODAY’S MAZE
Happy Sunday! Trade tensions are rising as President Trump threatens a 100% tariff on Canadian imports. This targets Ottawa’s recent trade deal with Beijing. It feels like each week brings new tariffs. When will this madness stop?
In today’s MarketMaze focus:
Trump’s 100% Canada tariffs
Walmart’s premium music shop
Amazon shortens claim windows
Recommerce hits the mainstream
Poland’s 2026 economic growth
+Handpicked recent news you need to know
LET’S ENTER THE MAZE!
- Artur Stańczuk, MarketMaze Founder
MAZE STORY
The Maze: President Trump threatens to slap a 100% tariff on all Canadian imports if Ottawa finalizes its preliminary agreement with Beijing. This move risks dismantling established North American logistics and spiking costs for brands.
The pact allows importing 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles while China simultaneously lowers duties on Canadian agricultural exports such as canola seed for market access.
Trump previously imposed a 35% levy last summer, yet the effective rate for Canadian imports recently sat at 3.89% because USMCA treatments provided exemptions.
In a Truth Social post, Trump warned that the proposed partnership turns Canada into a drop off port for China to flood various goods and products into the United States.
Why it matters: Implementing these levies creates massive price volatility for D2C brands relying on integrated northern supply chains. Logistics teams must accelerate nearshoring plans to avoid this standoff.
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MAZE STORY
The Maze: Amazon is shortening the window for SAFE-T claims from 60 to 30 days for US seller-fulfilled orders on February 16, 2026. This move limits how long merchants can seek reimbursements.
The platform aligns this change with standard US return periods and A-to-z appeal windows, making the refund timeline more uniform across the entire marketplace ecosystem.
The updated timeline enables submitting claims only for events occurring within the last month, effectively halving the previous window for merchant-fulfilled shipping disputes.
This policy follows a February 8 update requiring all US sellers to join the Prepaid Return Label program, removing previous exemptions for those shipping high-value items.
Why it matters: Tightening these windows makes streamlining internal audits essential for brands. The shift suggests Amazon is prioritizing platform efficiency over providing a safety net for its sellers.
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Wall Street Isn’t Warning You, But This Chart Might
Vanguard just projected public markets may return only 5% annually over the next decade. In a 2024 report, Goldman Sachs forecasted the S&P 500 may return just 3% annually for the same time frame—stats that put current valuations in the 7th percentile of history.
Translation? The gains we’ve seen over the past few years might not continue for quite a while.
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MAZE STORY
The Maze: Walmart Marketplace is courting musicians by launching a curated storefront for high-end instruments. The move signals a broader push into high-ticket, specialized categories to rival Amazon’s marketplace dominance.
This exclusive initiative restricts access to a vetted group of trusted sellers to ensure high quality and authenticity rather than opening the category to every marketplace merchant.
Shoppers can purchase both new and used gear ranging from guitars to pedals, marking the first phase of a larger marketplace expansion into professional equipment categories.
Walmart is actively recruiting sellers by offering specialized fulfillment services, lower fees, and access to a massive customer base to challenge music category leaders globally.
Why it matters: Capturing the high-intent enthusiast market allows boosting marketplace AOV while shedding its "budget-only" reputation. Expanding this category creates a massive opportunity for brands looking to diversify beyond Amazon's ecosystem.
DATA TREASURE
The Maze: Europe’s parcel networks are hitting a wall. Costs rise, labor tightens, and home delivery cracks under volume. This analysis combines modeled cashflows and cross-market data to show why lockers flip from drag to engine once adoption hits scale.
Higher locker adoption pulls break even forward by ~0.5y, shifting cashflow positive already around year 2 instead of year 3
Poland and Czechia pair ~40 parcels per citizen with 60–70 OOH options per 10k, outpacing richer but thinner networks
Germany runs ~22k lockers at ~0.3 per 1k people, yet structural capacity points to ~167k units, ~8x upside
Why it matters: Lockers are no longer a niche add-on. They are a cost lever for ecommerce and a margin lever for carriers. Markets that scale density faster compress losses, cut delivery costs, and gain structural advantage.
DATA TREASURE
The Maze: Recommerce is no longer a side hustle. Secondhand is becoming a core retail channel, driven by marketplaces that combine price pressure, trust, and convenience into one habit consumers now expect by default.
By 2026, recommerce is projected to reach 14% of total online GMV, up from 5.7% in 2020, showing a structural shift, not a post-pandemic hangover or niche sustainability trend.
Marketplaces capture 74% of recommerce GMV, about €90B, proving scale comes from aggregation, logistics, and trust systems, not from isolated brand takeback programs.
Electronics leads because standardized products, grading, and warranties make resale feel like new, while fashion resale climbs fast as authentication and managed shipping reduce buyer anxiety.
Why it matters: Marketplaces are turning resale into retail. Brands that stay out risk losing both margin and the customer relationship as secondhand becomes a default starting point, not a fallback.
BRIEFING
🏬 Everything else in Ecommerce & Big Tech
🇧🇷 Brazil suspended Meta's policy that blocked third-party AI assistants from WhatsApp, potentially opening up a new landscape for conversational commerce competition.
🇺🇸 The FTC sued JustAnswer for allegedly trapping users in hidden subscriptions that cost 26 times the advertised price, signaling a new crackdown on predatory "dark patterns."
📱 TikTok upgraded its Smart+ automation suite with new creative controls and ad preview tools to address advertiser demands for more efficiency in automated campaigns.
📦 eBay faced reports from marketplace sellers regarding visibility and eligibility glitches with Promoted Listings following recent changes to the platform's attribution models.
📊 Amplitude is investing tens of millions of dollars into an "AI-native" pivot, including five strategic acquisitions and specialized internal training to overhaul its analytics platform.
🇺🇸 Congress introduced the bipartisan TRAIN Act, which would grant copyright owners subpoena power to identify specific works used in generative AI training without permission.
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See you next time in the maze!
MarketMaze team
