Welcome back. This week, Amazon vendors face a reality check: tariffs bite, growth slows, and “hybrid” is the new buzzword. Meanwhile, AI traffic remains tiny but punches well above its weight in conversions. Dive in for the big moves, sharp data, and some lessons in digital survival.

P.S. We might have gotten a little too ambitious with our weekend deadline for Retail Media insights. If we miss it, next weekend is our final cut-off—promise. The plan: launch together with “Insights”—think Statista, but with teeth. One killer chart, straight-up MarketMaze commentary, and for MarketMaze+ readers, the whole dataset behind every insight. In the meantime you can check our new website!

INSIGHTS🧠

🛒 Amazon’s Vendor Game: Growth, Tariffs & The Hybrid Hustle
💎 AI Clicks: Small Share, Outsized Impact
🛒 FMCG Instore & Ecommerce 2025: Shelf Wars
💄 Beauty’s $580B Boom: The Face of 2024
🚀 Southern Europe: Growth Engines in Overdrive

NEWS📖

🇺🇸 Meta AI may scan your private, unpublished photos
🇺🇸 TikTok launches new shopping promos in the US
🇫🇷 Mirakl and Shopify deepen integration for enterprise sellers
🇺🇸 BigCommerce, Feedonomics, and Perplexity power AI search
🇺🇸 Amazon expands Prime delivery in rural America
🇨🇳 China-US e-commerce airfreight falls in May

+ 15 other handpicked news from the last week you need to know 🔥

LET’S ENTER THE MAZE!
- Artur Stańczuk, MarketMaze Founder

Amazon’s 2025 vendor playbook just got a rewrite. According to the latest Consulterce Global Amazon Vendor Survey (N=180, June '25), the easy days are gone. We dig into why growth is cooling, tariffs are biting, and hybrid models are the new badge of survival. This is your cheat sheet for what’s really happening behind Vendor Central’s closed doors.

Amazon still drives good growth for 74% of sellers, but the magic is fading—27% now see a slowdown versus just 21% last year. “Much faster” growth vs category dropped to 8% in 2025 (from 18% of vendors sharing that outlook in 2024). Average growth and “slower” categories are swelling. The age of guaranteed Amazon outperformance is ending. Brands are waking up to tougher comps, more friction, and a new normal where you need to fight for every click.

Tariffs and global turmoil have knocked growth forecasts on Amazon shared by vendors down to 13.1% in 2025 from 16.3% in 2024, a drop of 315 basis points. The share of brands expecting more than 20% growth is shrinking, with 25% planning for just 0–10% and another 8% bracing for zero or negative growth. The mood? Cautiously optimistic, but nowhere near the hyper-growth glory days. Inflation and trade wars are officially Amazon vendor problems.

The cost of tariffs isn’t staying with the vendors—80% of US sellers are planning to pass the pain, with profitable brands leading the charge. For profitable vendors, 37% expect a 5–10% price increase, and 20% will hike by over 10%. The message is clear: sellers aren’t eating margin hits for Amazon. Expect prices—and maybe headaches—for everyone down the chain.

Hybrid selling is the new power move. While 63% of brands still sell only as 1P (direct to Amazon), 37% are now running hybrid or “tribrid” models—mixing direct, distributor, and their own 3P Amazon shops. Why? Flexibility, pricing power, and a back-up plan if Vendor Central turns hostile. The future isn’t single-channel. It’s survival of the most agile—and that means selling everywhere you can, any way you can.

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AI isn’t just shaking up the search landscape - it’s flipping the conversion script. We dug into Seer Interactive’s GA4 analysis based on a US client’s data (Oct ’24–Apr ’25) and found that AI-driven visitors are rewriting the rules on intent and engagement. The result? Tiny traffic, huge value. Here’s what’s actually happening in the trenches.

A click from ChatGPT is almost 9x more likely to convert than one from Google organic search. The AI traffic average hits 12.4% conversion, while Google organic barely manages 1.8%. ChatGPT leads the charge with 15.9%, followed by Perplexity at 10.5%, Gemini at 3%, and Claude at 5%. In other words, AI referrals aren’t browsing—they’re buying. This is what high intent looks like in 2025.

AI sources account for just 0.07% of all sessions—rounding error territory. But over half that micro-slice comes from ChatGPT (53.1%), and Perplexity owns 21%. Gemini and Claude round out the rest. These platforms may be small in volume, but they’re heavyweight champs in influence. Ignore them at your own peril—the ROI math is brutal for anyone stuck watching Google’s numbers.

AI traffic isn’t one monolith. ChatGPT users behave like researchers, exploring 2.3 pages per session before making a move. Gemini’s crowd is task-focused, going straight for calculators or tools. Perplexity delivers high-intent, late-funnel shoppers ready to convert. The bottom line: if you aren’t customizing your user experience by AI channel, you’re leaving money on the table.

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RetailX breaks down how global fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands battle for dominance in both physical stores and online. The report dives into store digitization, e-grocery growth, and the numbers behind Europe’s biggest FMCG players in 2024-25. Find out who’s winning the shelf space—and why digital is now table stakes. 👉 RetailX

McKinsey’s team serves up the numbers behind a beauty market on fire—now topping $580B globally. Learn how mass market, luxury, and dermocosmetics brands are competing for Gen Z and Millennial wallets. Top players, M&A trends, and digital platforms—plus how TikTok and China are changing the rules. 👉 McKinsey

Bain’s latest survey shows upper-income Americans feel much better about the economy—they plan to spend more and are even taking on more debt, a sign of confidence. But lower-income households are losing optimism, saving less, and turning to debt just to get by. The gap between rich and poor is growing, even as total spending stays strong. 👉 Bain & Company

ECDB analyzes why Spain, Portugal, and Greece are outperforming global e-commerce forecasts through 2029. The piece gives numbers, drivers, and what makes these markets different—think mobile commerce, logistics upgrades, and local players going global. 👉 ECDB

🇺🇸 Meta AI may scan your private, unpublished photos. Facebook is testing a new feature that lets Meta AI access unpublished photos from your device if you opt in. The images, not shared publicly, can be analyzed for faces and objects, raising privacy concerns. 👉 Cybernews

🇺🇸 TikTok launches new shopping promos in the US. TikTok introduced "Shop Locally Made" and "Deals for You Days" events, boosting US e-commerce. Discounts on brands like Fenty Beauty and Crocs run July 7-19, targeting local business and driving a 120% year-on-year sales jump. 👉 SocialMediaToday

🇺🇸 X will charge advertisers based on ad size. X, formerly Twitter, will soon bill brands more for full-screen ads than smaller formats. Elon Musk says the move aims to improve user experience and reduce oversized ads in feeds. 👉 MediaPost

🇺🇸 Meta launches new marketing messages on Messenger. Meta rolled out enhanced marketing tools for businesses to send promotional content to users who opt in on Messenger. The move gives brands direct reach to subscribers and aligns Messenger with WhatsApp and Instagram tools. 👉 ChannelX

🇺🇸 Profound raises $20M to manage brands in AI search. New York-based Profound secured $20M in Series A led by Kleiner Perkins, with support from NVIDIA’s NVentures and others. The platform helps brands like Indeed and U.S. Bank boost visibility in AI search results. 👉 FinSMEs

🇺🇸 Perplexity now pays publishers for content use. Perplexity began sharing ad revenue with publishers like Time and Fortune whose work powers its AI search, after industry criticism. The deals give publishers a double-digit percent of ad revenue for several years. 👉 Forbes

🇺🇸 Microsoft retires Target CPA & ROAS ad strategies. Starting August 2025, Microsoft Advertising will remove Target CPA and ROAS for new campaigns, shifting to Maximize Conversions and Maximize Conversion Value. Existing campaigns using the old methods remain unchanged. 👉 Search Engine Land

🇺🇸 YouTube will add an AI “Slop” filter button. YouTube plans an AI-powered button using Google's Veo 3 system to flag or downgrade low-quality, AI-generated content. The new tool responds to a rise in “slop” videos and aims to help users filter their feeds. 👉 Gizmodo

🇺🇸 Remark raises $16M to blend humans & AI for e-commerce. Remark, a Boston-based startup, landed $16 million in Series A funding to grow its team and build expert AI tools for online shopping. Investors include Inspired Capital, Stripe, and Shine Capital, with the company focusing on human-trained AI models to boost trust and sales. 👉 TechCrunch

🇫🇷 Mirakl and Shopify deepen integration for enterprise sellers. Mirakl and Shopify launched a connector that automates product, order, and seller syncing, cutting integration time by 80%. The update helps large brands onboard faster and manage mixed product flows, with real-time support and regular updates. 👉 Mirakl

🇺🇸 BigCommerce, Feedonomics, and Perplexity power AI search. BigCommerce and Feedonomics teamed up with Perplexity to make product data easier for AI engines to find. Their partnership targets $61 billion in AI-driven sales and uses large language models for better product search and visibility. 👉 BigCommerce

🇺🇸 Balance and Alibaba.com launch 'Pay Later' for US SMEs. Alibaba.com and Balance introduced an AI-powered “Pay Later” solution, letting US businesses defer B2B payments at checkout. The tool offers instant credit checks and aims to help small firms get flexible financing on Alibaba.com. 👉 BusinessWire

🇺🇸 Klaviyo launches AI omnichannel tools for marketers. Klaviyo announced new AI-powered features for email, SMS, push, and WhatsApp—all managed in one place. The platform’s updates let brands run smarter campaigns in real time and reach over 143,000 businesses worldwide. 👉 Klaviyo

🇬🇧 Omnisend debuts AI suite to speed up e-commerce emails. Omnisend rolled out new AI tools to help 150,000 online stores build and personalize email campaigns faster. Merchants can now use templates, automations, and one-click integrations, freeing up time for strategy and boosting engagement. 👉 PR Newswire

🇺🇸 Amazon brings fast Prime delivery to rural America. Amazon is expanding Prime Same-Day and Next-Day delivery to over 4,000 small towns, investing $4B to triple its delivery network. The rollout targets communities like North Padre Island and Asbury, challenging Walmart’s rural dominance. 👉 AboutAmazon

🇨🇳 China-US airfreight for e-commerce falls 43% in May. Shipments from China to the U.S. dropped from 109K to 63K tonnes after the U.S. closed a tax loophole. Chinese exporters shifted volume to Europe and Latin America to avoid new tariffs on parcels. 👉 AirCargoNews

🇺🇸 DHL eCommerce Americas names Scott Ashbaugh CEO. Ashbaugh, who spent 16 years at DHL, replaces retiring CEO Lee Spratt. Based in Florida, Ashbaugh steps in as DHL looks to grow its e-commerce parcel network across the Americas. 👉 Parcel and Postal Technology International

🇬🇧 Evri invests £50M in UK smart locker network. Evri will roll out 10,000 new lockers by 2030, aiming for 2,000 locations by Christmas 2025. This investment follows a surge in locker usage and a proposed merger with DHL eCommerce UK. 👉 ChannelX

🇬🇧 Hived raises €35.6M to scale all-electric delivery. London’s Hived secured €35.6M to expand its EV parcel network to Bristol, Bath, and Brighton. The company delivered 6.5M parcels in London for brands like Zara and Uniqlo, with 99% on-time performance. 👉 EU-Startups

🇰🇷 FedEx starts direct cargo flights Korea–Taiwan. FedEx launched daily flights linking Incheon and Taipei, extending drop-off times by 3.5 hours. The route targets rising e-commerce, electronics, and semiconductor shipments between the two markets. 👉 STAT Times

That's it for today! Before you go we’d love to know what you thought of today's maze to help us improve!

See you next time in the maze!
MarketMaze team