TODAY’S MAZE
Happy Friday! Here’s the insights scoop in one sip for the weekend.
OUTSIDE THE MAZE 👀
9️⃣ Asian entrants close UK gap 🇬🇧
🔟 Amazon seller sentiment dips 🧾
PLAYER PUZZLES🧩
1️⃣ Mercado Libre widens LATAM lead 🇧🇷
2️⃣ Control vs scale models 🌍
3️⃣ China owns marketplace GMV 🌏
4️⃣ Pinduoduo to 1.3T by 2030 🇨🇳
5️⃣ Attention beats search 🌐
MARKETING SIGNALS 📶
6️⃣ Google Shopping gets tailwind 🇺🇸
7️⃣ Auction shock favors rivals 🛍️
8️⃣ PMax becomes default 📈
LET’S ENTER THE MAZE!
- Artur Stańczuk, MarketMaze Founder
👀OUTSIDE THE MAZE
🇬🇧 Asian Players Advance
The Maze: Asian challengers are closing in on UK incumbents, narrowing the gap with local players to just $1B. Temu, AliExpress, and TikTok Shop are growing faster than Next or Asos, while Amazon cements its dominance over two-thirds of the market.
UK marketplace GMV hits $93.8B. Amazon takes 67% of that, generating $62.7B—more than all other top 10 platforms combined.
Asian platforms gain ground fast. Temu, AliExpress, and TikTok Shop now control 4% of the UK market, nearly matching locals like Next, Asos, and John Lewis at 4.5%.
Local retailers lose momentum. Next’s growth is flat, while Asos and John Lewis decline, unable to match Asian rivals’ pricing and product speed.
Social commerce is the next front. TikTok Shop’s mix of entertainment and sales gives it a powerful edge in attracting younger UK shoppers.
Why it matters: The UK marketplace race is turning global—Amazon stays king, but Asia’s platforms are rewriting the playbook for how Britons shop online.
👉 Read more at ECDB
👀OUTSIDE THE MAZE
🧾 Seller Sentiment Sours
The Maze: Amazon sellers are losing trust as feedback systems evolve. Star-only reviews inflate negatives and tie sellers to platform issues they don’t control. Reputation on Amazon is now as volatile as its search algorithm.
Positive feedback is collapsing. Global satisfaction with Amazon sellers dropped from 93% in 2020 to mid-80s in 2025, signaling a deep erosion of consumer trust.
India’s marketplace confidence crashed. Only 53% of Indian customers rate sellers positively—the steepest decline worldwide, showing structural service issues.
Amazon blurs accountability. Star-only feedback removes context for negative reviews, leaving sellers unable to dispute issues caused by Amazon’s own fulfillment or delivery.
Seller reputation now feels random. Ratings can tank from delays, damaged packaging, or customer service failures—none of which sellers control.
Why it matters: Amazon’s “simplified” system hides operational flaws behind star ratings, shifting blame onto sellers and eroding confidence in the marketplace model.
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🧩 PLAYER PUZZLES
🇧🇷 Mercado Libre Ascends
The Maze: Mercado Libre is pulling further ahead in Latin America, capturing nearly a quarter of online retail sales by 2029. While Amazon stays flat, competitors like Shopee and Shein are stalled below 5 percent. The platform’s logistics and payments ecosystem has become both its moat and growth engine.
Mercado Libre’s share rises from ~19% in 2024 to ~24% by 2029, widening the gap with Amazon to over 15 points.
Its payments arm and fulfillment network create switching costs that rivals can’t match.
Amazon’s regional share plateaus near 7–8%, signaling maturity without local moats.
Shein and Shopee grow in niches but lack infrastructure depth to scale region-wide.
🌍 Platform Control Divide
The Maze: Global marketplaces are experimenting with how tightly they control pricing, logistics, and marketing. Temu and Shein run vertically integrated machines, while Amazon and AliExpress let sellers operate more freely. The model tension is efficiency versus control.
Temu runs a “Full” model, setting prices, running ads, and managing logistics in all markets.
Shein and TikTok Shop toggle between full control and shared operations by country.
Amazon tests low-price consignment hybrids like “Amazon Haul” to match China’s speed.
Platforms trade cash burn for customer experience when they choose control over scale.
🌏 China Runs Commerce
The Maze: China’s ecosystems now dominate global marketplace volume, led by Taobao, Douyin, and Kuaishou. Social commerce has fused entertainment with transaction, leaving legacy players fighting for relevance. The next frontier is exporting that playbook abroad.
Taobao ($542B), Douyin ($509B), and Kuaishou ($193B) eclipse eBay’s $72B by multiples.
Over 70% of top marketplace GMV now originates from Chinese platforms.
eBay, AliExpress, and Temu form the next cluster between $50B and $70B.
Short-video platforms are defining the new discovery funnel for global commerce.
🇨🇳 Pinduoduo Keeps Rising
The Maze: Pinduoduo’s decade-long run is rewriting the scale curve of value commerce. From $242B in 2020 to $1.3T projected by 2030, it proves discount ecosystems can grow without killing margins if powered by data and gamified retention.
Sales surge from $242B in 2020 to $836B in 2025 and $1.34T by 2030.
CAGR slows from 28% to 10% but still adds $500B in five years.
Viral deal-sharing remains PDD’s low-cost customer acquisition engine.
🌐 Market Share Shuffle
The Maze: The global ecommerce hierarchy is flipping. Pinduoduo and ByteDance are set to match Amazon’s share by 2030 as attention-driven commerce eats search-driven sales. Alibaba’s decline shows how format disruption beats scale.
Pinduoduo’s global share grows from 5% in 2020 to 14% in 2030.
ByteDance jumps from near zero to 13%, powered by live shopping.
Amazon slips below 14%, signaling structural saturation.
Attention, not intent, now dictates ecommerce market power.
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📶 MARKETING SIGNALS
🇺🇸 Google Regains Momentum
The Maze: With Amazon stepping back from Google Shopping, ad spend efficiency surged. Clicks jumped 15% and spend rose 14% while cost per click fell 1%. Performance Max now leads the charge as retailers chase scale and automation.
Google Shopping clicks +15% YoY in Q3 2025; CPC down 1%.
PMax drives 68% of Shopping spend, up from 59% last quarter.
YouTube placements inside PMax doubled to 9% of impressions.
🛍️ Auction Shockwave
The Maze: Amazon’s sudden pause in Google Shopping auctions reshaped ad markets overnight. Walmart, Shein, and Temu filled the void, proving how fragile competitive equilibrium is in retail search. Opportunists rode a once-in-a-year efficiency wave.
Amazon’s share plunged from 60% to zero in late July 2025.
Walmart rose to 30%, Shein held ~25%, Temu stabilized near 13%.
Click volume surged while CPCs stayed flat for smaller retailers.
Adaptive bidding became the fastest path to profit during chaos.
📈 PMax Takes Over
The Maze: Google’s Performance Max is no longer optional. After early skepticism, it commands two-thirds of Shopping spend and sales. Retailers that master creative feeds, not just bids, will own the next wave of search-driven commerce.
PMax spend share climbs from 53% in Q1 to 68% in Q3 2025.
PMax sales share mirrors at 67%, with higher conversion rates.
Standard Shopping remains a testing tool for clean benchmarks.
YouTube video assets within PMax doubled, reshaping attribution.
Sources for all Mazes: 🔒 Available for MarketMaze+
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