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TODAY’S MAZE
Happy Sunday! Black Friday online sales in the US surged to a record $11.8B, a massive spending spree powered by steep retailer discounts and rising mobile engagement. Crucially, the growth was significantly bolstered by both AI-driven shopping tools and Buy Now, Pay Later services.
In today’s MarketMaze focus:
Black Friday sales break records
Marketplaces Seize The Auctions
Europe Shifts Payment Fraud Liability
India e-commerce IPO success
Oversupply Turns Ritual Risky
+Handpicked recent news you need to know
LET’S ENTER THE MAZE!
- Artur Stańczuk, MarketMaze Founder
MAZE STORY
The Maze: US Black Friday online sales hit a record $11.8B, underscoring strong consumer demand fueled by deeper discounts, mobile dominance (58.6% of sales), and a significant embrace of both Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) and AI shopping tools.
AI adoption soared, driving a massive 600% increase in traffic to retail sites from AI assistants compared to last year, influencing $22B in global sales between Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
BNPL services powered $761.8M in Black Friday spending, marking an 11% year-over-year increase, even as FICO announced plans to integrate BNPL repayment data into credit scores this year.
Retailers leveraged promotions with electronics seeing the steepest markdowns at up to 29% off, yet Salesforce data also shows that average prices across categories were up by 7% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Ecommerce teams must urgently optimize their mobile funnels and AI integration, given that devices drove $5.1B in sales and AI-driven traffic surged. This record spending, supported by installment plans, requires platforms to build robust credit risk tools while preparing for a projected $14.2B Cyber Monday.
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MAZE DEEP DIVE
The Maze: Black Friday 2025 exposed a simple truth. A few marketplaces now control the most valuable real estate in Google Shopping and they treat it like a battlefield. Walmart and Amazon went heavy on peak day visibility while Target, Temu and eBay stepped back. The result was a split market where the biggest players bought attention at the exact moment intent peaked and everyone else either paid up or disappeared.
• In the US Walmart pushed its visibility to 31% on Black Friday, showing a clear strategy to buy share when conversion rates spike and shoppers move fast.
• Target dropped from around 8% early in November to 1% on the day, revealing tight guardrails around cost and a focus on profitable traffic rather than maximum reach.
• In the UK Amazon tripled its visibility to around 30% on Black Friday after holding near 9% for most of the season, proving its willingness to outbid rivals when demand is highest.
• Temu fell to roughly 4% in the UK and under 1% in the US, signalling a more selective approach as tariffs, CPC inflation and margin pressure forced a shift away from expensive search inventory.
Why it matters: Google Shopping has become a high stakes arena where timing beats volume. Marketplaces no longer spend evenly but strike when the return is highest and pull back when the math turns ugly. Brands that watch these moves in real time can protect margin, anticipate auction spikes and win visibility in the hours when competitors retreat.
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MAZE STORY
The Maze: The European Parliament and Council reached a provisional deal on the Payment Services Regulation (PSR) and the Third Payment Services Directive (PSD3), significantly shifting liability for online fraud from consumers to payment service providers and platforms. This landmark agreement strengthens consumer protection by mandating robust fraud prevention measures and fee transparency across the EU.
Payment Service Providers (PSPs) must reimburse customers for losses when they fail to implement appropriate fraud prevention, including requirements to verify that the payee’s name matches the unique identifier mandated by the Payment Services Regulation.
Online platforms become liable to PSPs that have reimbursed defrauded customers if the platforms are notified of fraudulent content and fail to remove it, aligning with the goal to step up the fight against fraud and increase transparency.
The directive requires companies to inform customers about all charges, including currency conversion and fixed fees for cash withdrawal, while also requiring merchants to ensure their trading name matches the name appearing on customers’ bank statements under the Third Payment Services Directive.
Why it matters: Shifting the 86% of current consumer fraud losses back to providers strengthens overall trust in digital transactions, enabling merchants to benefit from increased consumer confidence and clarity.
MAZE STORY
The Maze: SoftBank-backed Meesho executed India’s inaugural major horizontal e-commerce initial public offering, raising $606M and establishing a post-issue valuation near $5.6B.
The platform reported a 44% year-over-year rise in Net Merchandise Value (GMV), reaching $2.15B for the six months ending September 2025.
Large institutional investors like SoftBank and Prosus are notably not selling any shares during the listing, signaling deep confidence in the long-term growth trajectory of the Indian e-commerce space.
Meesho plans to use the IPO capital to scale technology infrastructure and rapidly expand its seller ecosystem, aiming to grow the seller ecosystem to 10M businesses by 2027.
Why it matters: This successful IPO validates the viability of the value-focused, asset-light marketplace model and intensifies competition, setting the stage for potential future public listings from Flipkart and Amazon India.
DATA TREASURE
The Maze: Black Friday profits in Germany are slipping as an 11% oversupply collides with a discount culture that consumers treat as ritual, not rational choice. Shoppers participate because everyone else does, so deep cuts aren’t even required. Yet retailers slash prices anyway to clear the extra inventory flooding Europe after US tariff changes, pushing margins into a painful downturn.
• The end of the US de minimis threshold and new tariff hikes redirected enough Asian exports to boost Europe’s supply by about 11% just as Black Week 2025 begins.
• Kearny model forecasts show roughly €23B in Black Week sales but only €2.4B in profit, including a €144M hit to earnings, with fashion and electronics absorbing over €106M of the decline.
• Platforms like Temu and Shein raised digital ad spending by about thirty per month in Central Europe and more than doubled year on year in some markets, forcing local retailers into reactive, margin-eroding promotions.
Why it matters: Oversupply, tariff shocks and aggressive newcomers turn a ritual buying moment into a profitability trap. Retailers lean on discounts even though consumers would buy with far less incentive.
BRIEFING
🏬 Everything else in Ecommerce & key players
🇺🇸 Major Retailers are prioritizing lower-priced value items and adjusting promotional strategies to drive holiday spending amidst cratering consumer sentiment.
🌍 Luxury consolidation accelerates as Prada finalizes its acquisition of Versace, while Chinese giant Anta Sports explores a potential takeover of Puma, signaling rapid portfolio reshaping in fashion.
🌍 High-end luxury labels are quietly struggling with excess inventory, using discreet, unadvertised sales only accessible to subscribers to clear stock without visibly devaluing their brands.
🌍 Amazon faced the largest 'Make Amazon Pay' protest mobilization to date, involving workers across 30+ countries demanding safer warehouse conditions and AI accountability during Black Friday.
🇨🇳 Alibaba launched its Quark AI glasses in China, powered by the Qwen AI model, signaling a major move into the global AI wearables market currently dominated by Meta.
BRIEFING
📣Everything else in Ecommerce ecosystem
🇺🇸 Google's upcoming AI Mode for search is warned by experts to potentially dominate competitor ChatGPT, fundamentally reshaping product discovery and e-commerce SEO strategies.
🇺🇸 Amazon introduced a new Fulfillment by Merchant (FBM) feature allowing sellers to set 'No-Ship' dates, providing operational flexibility without requiring the full Vacation setting.
🌍 A new report shows that 56% of shoppers feel overwhelmed by marketing messages primarily due to irrelevance, signaling that personalization is critical for peak season success.
🌍 AI commerce startup Onton secured $7.5M in seed funding to expand its neurosymbolic AI platform, which aims to reduce online shopping friction by enabling precise product purchases within minutes.
🇬🇧 The UK announced finally it will scrap the £135 de minimis threshold, forcing low-value packages from overseas retailers to pay customs duties and tax, removing a long-standing pricing advantage.
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